Long-term forecasting of peak demand, electric vehicles and distributed energy resources

  • Project
  • electric vehicules
178 A3536

BBA developed a 25-year load forecasting model for an Ontario utility to predict system peak load and non-coincident peak load for transmission station (TS) buses from 2022 to 2046.

  • Region Central Canada
  1. Our experts' solutions

    Initially, a multivariate regression model provided a system-wide base forecast. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to account for variability from weather and economic conditions. Historical trends were analyzed to forecast how changes in system peak load would affect the non-coincident TS bus peaks. Four additional scenarios were overlaid onto the TS bus forecast: data centres, electric vehicles, conservation and demand management, and distributed energy resources.

    The analysis led to a comprehensive load forecasting model that predicts peak load growth across the utility’s service area at both the bus-level and system-wide. Ultimately, this model equipped the utility with capacity planning insights to meet the electricity demands of Ontario’s residents and businesses over the next 25 years.

    • 1,340,000 electric vehicles or more by 2046.
    • 1,800 MVA or more of peak load potentially offset in summer 2046 by using solar panels.
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