System-wide reliability forecast model

  • Project
178 A6968

BBA worked with CEATI to establish best practices for developing a system-wide reliability forecasting model. Utilities are increasingly challenged by state and provincial regulators to share the outcomes of their capital and maintenance investment strategies. Recognizing the difficulty utilities face in presenting reliable qualitative evidence during the regulatory proceedings, CEATI aimed to create a reliability forecast model that could offer data-driven, objective and easy-to-understand reliability outcomes for capital and maintenance investments.

  • Region Central Canada
  • Client ceati

  1. Our experts' solutions

    The CEATI System-Wide Reliability Forecast Model (T164700 #50/133) initiative is designed to provide utilities with guidance and tools through best practices and industry standards to establish their own reliability forecasting procedures, leveraging their asset and investment data. This included a guide and a tool that utilities could use to generate 10-year reliability forecasts using their own input data.

    This initiative equipped utilities with the means to establish reliability forecasting procedures and immediately apply them to assess major capital and maintenance investments. By exploring various investment scenarios, utilities can optimize their investment strategies to achieve desired reliability outcomes at cost-effective price points. For instance, adopting a mix of asset renewal and distribution automation (DA), investments can potentially reduce capital spending by up to 25%, as opposed to exclusively focusing on asset renewal activities.

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